Suleimani and Iranian-Russian Strategy
Suleimani was commander of the Iranian Quds force (Special Forces), responsible for running proxies in Syria, Iran, very active against ISIL post 2012, but also active against American forces prior to that for years. The following Wiki text sums him up well. He was highly religious, started his military career at start of Iran-Iraq war and came from peasant background. Probably regarded as an honourable and courageous man, but deeply committed to clearing the region of Western influence and creating a greater Shia region including all Syria and beyond. His activities were not always supported fully by the Tehran leadership, due to his power and influence.
Russia and Iran do not need any single excuse to "take over" Iraqi oil & gas facilities in any sudden direct way. It's a question of steadily reducing involvement by Western oil cos and equally steady increases in Russian and friendly companies taking on oil & gas field developments. To an extent that process has been steadily ongoing for years in the north in Kurdistan as Western oil cos have becoming increasingly reluctant to be involved in that region, the same for the 153 Billion barrels of proven reserves in the Basrah border region. Rosneft and Lukoil have been increasingly active in Kurdistan. It's a game, because there is technology, equipment that can still only be supplied by Western oil cos, so carrots are dangled.
It's not possible to say that this was "the plan all along" since the 1980s Iran-Iraq conflict. However since the US troop reductions (120 k at peak now down to 5k) Russia has clearly made large diplomatic and strategic efforts to get into the region more and more and have generally succeeded, if slowly and with some obstacles.
The reasons why go back through 30+ years of evidence. Apart from taking attention away from his low key impeachment and pleasing the "base" with an act of war to seem tough guy, you have to look at who benefits.
The Russian strategy now must be:
The Russian strategy now must be:
a) Get the US and allies out of Iraq for good ensuring full access to oil and gas.
b) Quieten down Syria & Kurdistan to portray selves as "peacemakers".
c) Mollify KSR for potential future influence.
d ) Just keep on making US look bad whenever and however possible.
e) Reassure Israel, which has become heavily RU influenced by oligarch inflows.
f) Keep the QAT-EGYPT-TURK Muslim Brotherhood dictatorships happy.
g) Continue 4D work: www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/11/trump-russia-kremlin-propaganda-tactics/
h) Finish building the pipelines. New Siberian LNG project announced recently.
More than ever, the West MUST accelerate clean energy immediately or there will be big trouble looming if Carbon fuels are held onto, not to mention planetary destruction. In America and Britain that means no more corrupted GOP and rapid removal of the Tories and their crooked compromised leaders. Not easy. History must not be allowed to simply take it's course. Maintaining presence in Iraq with the Persians sitting there and so much Shiite trouble around in the South was always going to be tough, especially when the Russians were playing hard and Mister Erdoğan was brought on with gas cash transit fee promises for trans Turkey pipelines. The poor old Kurds were screwed as per usual, with the Alawites in Damascus told they could stay on.
Lavrov is overstretching things buoyed by success. He and his team need to be hit hard where it hurts $$$. Electrify everything that moves.
Comments
Post a Comment