Denmark Vs Sweden – COVID-19 Comparison

 

Summary: Both DK and SE experienced economic “collapse of 29% and 25% respectively. Authors conclude this magnitude of reduction occurred regardless of whether there were social distancing and lockdowns in place. The main reason for SE not doing the same as DK was due to historical attitudes to personal liberty and the legal system in place compared to that in DK and little to do with either a desire for “Herd Immunity”, As Swedes have always maintained, nothing to do with desire to leave economy more opened out in SE and nothing related to population density differences.

www.econ.ku.dk/cebi/research/ocial-distancing-laws-cause-only-small-losses-of-economic-activity-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-in-scandinavia/

Adam Sheridan, Asger Lau Andersen, Emil Toft Hansen, and Niels Johannesen (2020), “Social Distancing Laws Cause only Small Losses of Economic Activity During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Scandinavia”. PNAS August 25, 2020 117 (34) 20468-20473;August 3, 2020; doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2010068117

www.pnas.org/content/117/34/20468

·  DK & SE experienced very similar early outbreak.

·  Different legal system/laws in DK compared to SE related to individual freedom.

·  Reasonable to assume spending and disease incidence would have evolved in same way as in Sweden, had Denmark not introduced social distancing [SD] laws.

·  Main finding: total consumer spending dropped by ~ 25% in Sweden and due to their shutdown, by extra 4% in Denmark due to their shutdown.

·  Major cause of economic collapse in both countries was similarly escalating Covid-19 outbreak.

·  >> no meaningful trade-off between saving lives and saving the economy.

·  Different age group health concerns in DK. where SD laws amplified spending drop (10% > SE) by young people: DK shutdown attenuated drop in elderly (5% less than in SE)

·  Age gradient suggests social distancing reinforces drop for low-health-risk individuals but attenuates for high-risk individuals by lowering overall prevalence of virus in society.

·  Spending drops massively even when supply is unconstrained and drop correlates strongly with health risk.

·  Economic costs of a shutdown would most likely be larger in younger countries.

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